‘Downwardly mobiles’ rule!
Speaking truth to power: 1, 2 , 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 8a, 8aFR, 8b & 8c
This follows on an ode to youth as next agents of change, but inspired by FT article Beware the downwardly mobile (paywall) in light of a Slideshare post depicting the arc of economics since the Middle Ages.
Update: follow my family story next, which tells more about social mobility.
In post #7 of another series, I argued “that after the post-WWII boom, we’re backsliding as socialist experiments failed”. Capitalism indeed relies on increasing if not accelerating economic activity and wealth, but we’re experiencing a shrinking if not deceleration well written up in the media.
The plot has been complicated lately by climate breadown and the pandemic. Let me propose a very simple statistical graph, based on real numbers without delving into the historic economic concepts involved. Inspired 3½ years ago by UN Data and Guardian Data, two papers studying economic wealth in Great Britain since the Middle Ages (slide 3 below, PDF here with links) helped document the rise then fall of total economic growth since the Middle Ages. This local example was found in studying my home area East Anglia’s historic economic evolution since the Middle Ages, detailed in my blog.
While blessed locally with that vintage of data, let me argue that this does not relate to England and Wales alone. For example see the economic indicators of both bubonic plagues and the 18th c. agricultural depression in Europe. The point here is that we’re witnessing a downward arc, and any argument that “things will become better” and “we shall return to normal” are not likely to happen any time soon… Please tweet me @azolnai and prove me wrong!
In post #8b of this series, I argue “nothing will change from the top, so change must come from the bottom”, our youth being the vector of this. And while mentioning disaffected sectors of the pouplation, FT’s Janan Ganesh identified the downwardly mobile (paywalled) as ones to watch for: they have been agents of change before, he argues with historical examples.
Disclosure: I recently became downwardly mobile, a labourer to support myself during separation, after a lifetime as a white male middle class professional.
Also from that previous post, I fully support Extinction Rebellion (XR) Project 3.5, ref. the 3.5% population segment that will bring about change to save the planet. I’m putting to XR that in addition, they should try and target the downwardly mobile amongst them, as disaffected masses were so effectively used for example during England’s Brexit campaign (see this early post §6).
The banner map illustrates population vunerability as a function of flooding risk and from poverty index: those most at risk (lighter colours) are in the rual isolated areas of the northern coastal fenlands, also the farthest away from road and city infrastructure. It illstrates the geographical distribution of East Anglia population the most likely to be downwardly mobile as measured by poverty index and risk to their assets.
So were does the title come from? While meant to be mildly provocative as titles do, the point is that only catering to those most at risk — the youth described in the previous post and the socially vulnerable / dowwardly mobile described here — can we hope to achieve anything by mobilising enough people to protest the current situation and bring about change.
