8.22 Presidential Social Intelligence Battleground Tracker
An aggregate weekly pulse of how potential voters in battleground states are discussing the Presidential candidates.
— Please check out the background post on this project if it is your first time reading.
— Our initial dataset from the week of 7.3 was detailed here.
— Data from the week of 7.11 was detailed here
— Data from the week of 7.19 was detailed here.
— Aggregate data to date through 8.14 was detailed here
Battleground States in our Analysis: AZ, CO, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, NV, NH, NC, PA, TX, WI
Date Source: All data is publicly available and anonymized for our analysis from Twitter, Facebook, Online Blogs, & Message Boards.
Technology Partners: Eyesover & Relative Insight
Text/Language Analysis
For this post we will do a deeper dive into text/language analysis from Trump/Biden supporters in the battleground states from 8.07–8.14 & 8.14–8.21. We also provided a link to some of our processed datasets below.
Building off the “ Daily Support Gain v. Lost” classification, we are aggregating an anonymized dataset of social posts that represent support for each candidate. This dataset allows us to compare and analyze the language used by “Biden Supporters” v. “Trump Supporters.”
From this analysis, we can better understand the issues/topics/trends that cause voters to express support or opposition toward a candidate. It also exposes overall patterns from the language used between the two supporter datasets.
— The analysis is made possible by our partners at Relative Insight.
Toplines
8.07–8.14 Battleground Trump Supporters:
— Total Words 1,305,664
— Total Messages 57,459
8.07–8.14 Battleground Biden Supporters:
— Total Words 1,519,935
— Total Messages 64,760
8.14–8.21 Battleground Trump Supporters: (Dataset Link)
— Total Words 1,284,783
— Total Messages 55,634
8.14–8.21 Battleground Biden Supporters: (Dataset Link)
— Total Words 1,580,861
— Total Messages 67,695
8.07–8.14 Insights
The online conversation of Trump supporters was much more topically disparate in comparison to Biden supporters during this period.
— Relative difference measured around Trump supporters discussion of “violent criminals” from the riots/protests around the country. Middle Eastern foreign relations developments between Israel and UAE and frustration with the media’s oversight of perceived Biden “gaffes.”
— The ongoing trend of Trump supporters heavy use of the term “God Bless America” surfaced as it has in past weeks.
On the other hand, Biden supporter conversation focused heavily around vote-by-mail and US Postal Service topics.
— Relative difference spiked around terms like “postmaster,” mail-in ballots, “mail delivery,” “deliberately slow.”
8.14–8.21 Insights
Here again, the online conversation of Trump supporters was much more topically disparate in comparison to Biden supporters during this period.
— Relative difference measured around organic “boat parade” topics, criticism over Biden and the “1994 crime bill”, “elder abuse” related to nursing home scandals around coronavirus, and Trump’s potential pardon of “Edward Snowden.”
On the other hand, Biden support conversation focused heavily around the Democrat National Convention
— Relative difference measured around “Watch Party” events & “donations.” The recurring trend of Biden supporters highlight COVID related death counts also surfaced, as it has in each week of our analysis.
About The Author
Adam Meldrum is an award-winning political & digital strategist. He is the Founder/President of the Republican media-buying operation AdVictory LLC. Adam has consulted with other organizations in the political/technology space such as DDC Public Affairs and WinRed. Adam also serves on The Board of Directors at HeadCount, a non-partisan organization that uses the power of music to register voters and promote participation in democracy.
Since 2006 Adam has produced award-winning work for and advised campaigns/organizations such as; Governor Rick Snyder, Governor Bruce Rauner, Governor Doug Burgum, Governor Bill Lee, Ambassador Ron Weiser, Senator Ben Sasse, Senator John McCain, Senator Rand Paul, The Republican National Committee and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Adam’s work on the forefront of technology, data, and analytics was featured by OZY Media in a profile: “Meet the GOP’s Chatbot and Artificial Intelligence Guru”. He is a die-hard Michigan State University fan/alumni and pretty obsessed with Phish and The Grateful Dead. He resides in Washington D.C. with his beautiful wife Christina and their weird puppy, Basil.
Personal Website: http://www.adammeldrum.me/
