“Time is quickly running out for residents to rush preparations to completion on the southwestern Florida peninsula as Hurricane #Ian nears. Tropical-Storm-Force winds already beginning to affect coast. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate & catastrophic wind damage is expected.” Source: National Hurricane Center tweet
Hurricane Ian Images and Its Likely Catastrophic Impacts
But Ian — now a major (Category 4) hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 155 mph and higher gusts — “will cause catastrophic storm surge, winds, and flooding in the Florida Peninsula soon,” the National Hurricane Center says.
At 11 a.m. (EDT) today, Ian’s center was about 45 miles west-northwest of Naples, Florida, and about 50 miles south-southwest of Punta Gorda. The almost Category 5 hurricane was heading north-northeast at 9 mph, the hurricane center says.
“Extremely dangerous eyewall of Ian moving onshore,” the center says.
“Peak Storm Surge Inundation (the water level above the ground) has been increased” for these locations:
— From Englewood to Bonita Beach, 12 to 18 feet. — Charlotte Harbor, 12 to 18 feet. — From Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee, 8 to 12 feet. — From Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable, 5 to 8 feet.
“Storm surge is beginning across southwestern FL as #Ian closes in. Water levels are rising quickly and this station near Naples, FL is in Moderate flood level just after LOW tide. Evacuation/Preparations need to be completed NOW.” Source: Tweet by the National Weather Service at 10:22 a.m. (EDT) on Sept. 28, 2022
“Although the tracks of Cat4 Ian ’22 and Cat4 Charley ’04 are eerily similar, the sizes are VERY different. As of 5am Wednesday, Ian’s area of hurricane-force winds is 2.9 times larger, and its area of tropical storm force winds is 2.3 times larger,” Brian McNoldy, senior research associate at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School, tweeted. “This matters a lot for storm surge, as well as impacting many more people with destructive winds.”
Meanwhile, in southern New England, it’s “still uncertain how far north the rain from Ian gets this weekend, but the best chance of showers is near the south coast Saturday night into Sunday,” a forecast discussion by the National Weather Service Boston/Norton office says. Ian’s remnants are expected to move off the mid-Atlantic coast early next week, with rain lurking just offshore.
“Pleasant, dry weather continues for the remainder of the workweek,” the office tweeted, but Ian’s remnants may result in rain in portions of Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut this weekend.
Precipitation forecast through 8 a.m. (EDT) on Mon. Oct. 3, 2022. Source: NOAA Northeast River Forecast Center
More images (BTW, I started covering hurricanes, other tropical cyclones and their impacts in the mid-1980s, when I began a 30-year stint as an environmental writer at the Asbury Park Press in New Jersey):
Hurricane Ian on Sept. 28, 2022. Source: CIRA/NOAA
Source: National Hurricane Center
IR image of Hurricane Ian at 8:36 a.m. (EDT) on Sept. 28, 2022. Source: NESDIS Satellite Services Division (NOAA)
Water vapor image of Hurricane Ian at 8:36 a.m. (EDT) on Sept. 28, 2022. Source: NESDIS Satellite Services Division (NOAA)
Source: National Hurricane Center
Source: National Weather Service Key West office
Source: National Weather Service Tallahassee office
Peak storm surge forecast (experimental). Source: National Hurricane Center
Peak storm surge forecast (experimental). Source: National Hurricane Center
Storm surge warning and watch areas. Source: National Hurricane Center
“The latest potential storm surge flooding map from the National #Hurricane Center shows sobering levels of storm surge flooding for coastal southwest Florida. #Ian” Source: Tweet by Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts.
Rainfall forecast through 8 a.m. on Mon. Oct. 3, 2022. Source: NWS/NCEP Weather Prediction Center (WPC) via National Hurricane Center
“There is a HIGH RISK of excessive rainfall from Hurricane #Ian Today through Thursday Night in central and northeast Florida, the first High Risk in five years for Tampa, Orlando, and Jacksonville metro areas.” Source: Weather Prediction Center at the National Hurricane Center
Source: Weather Prediction Center at the National Weather Service
A high risk of excessive rainfall, as in central and northeast Florida through Thursday night with Hurricane Ian, signals days with potentially deadly and damaging flash. Have multiple ways to get flash flood warnings and avoid being on the roads unless completing evacuation. Source: Tweet by the Weather Prediction Center at the National Weather Service
Precipitation forecast through 8 a.m. on Oct. 5, 2022. Source: Weather Prediction Center at the National Weather Service
Tornado watch till 5 p.m. (EDT) on Sept. 28, 2022. Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center
Source: National Hurricane Center
Source: National Hurricane Center
Source: National Hurricane Center
Hurricane Ian moved over a large fuel source on Sept. 27, 2022: warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico…. This map shows sea surface temperatures above 82.04 degrees Fahrenheit in red. Such warm water can sustain and intensify hurricanes as thermal energy moves from the sea to the sky. Source: NASA Earth tweet
Source: Climate Central
The landfall location of all 14 Category 4 or 5 hurricanes (on record) to make landfall in Florida. “Unfortunately, we’re going to be adding another dot to this map shortly.” Source: Tweet by Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts.
Tracks of the 14 Category 4 or 5 hurricanes on record to make landfall in Florida. Only four hurricanes on record have made landfall in the continental U.S. with maximum sustained winds exceeding 155 mph: Labor Day (1935) 185 mph; Camille (1969) 175 mph; Andrew (1992) 165 mph; and Michael (2018) 160 mph. Source: Tweets by Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts.
Four Category 4 or 5 hurricanes have been within 50 miles of Hurricane Ian’s location as of 8:31 a.m. EDT on Sept. 28, 2022: Great Cuba Hurricane (1910); Florida Keys (1935); Andrew (1992); Charley (2004). Source: Tweet by Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts.
NH EnviroGuy blogger & photography enthusiast living near Newfound Lake in New Hampshire. Finalist, 2010 Pulitzer Prize in Public Service. Snowy ROC NY native.
