What happens when US rates rise? Three Scenarios

If I was stuck on a desert island, tasked with monitoring the health or otherwise of the global economy and allowed access to only one snippet of data a day, I know exactly which data series I’d choose: the yield on ten year US Treasury Bonds…

Is Finland’s Slump A Glimpse Into Europe’s Future?

Poor demographics, poor productivity could be the new normal for Europe.

How I Achieved Peace by Crippling My Phone

Getting over the myth of productivity

How Does QE Work? A Picture Worth a Thousand Words

The ECB has started buying government bonds. Will…

Greek reform proposals — a first review

(Note — this is a rough and ready first cut at an analysis of the leaked version of the “Specific reform” proposals which the Greek finance ministry needs to send to the Institutions in order to make progress on the next tranche of bailout funding. I was very…

Flat whites, hipsters and the post-mortgage British economy

(Note to American readers — a “flat white” is a kind of coffee; like a cappucino with less milk. It was invented in New Zealand and is popular with British hipsters, hence its metonymic use to describe the creative and…

Can market crashes be predicted?

Maybe — if you’re clever enough to find the right measures that…