9.22 Presidential Social Intelligence Battleground Tracker — Supreme Court Sentiment and Support Impact
A pulse of how potential voters in battleground states are discussing the Presidential candidates
Please check out the background post on this project if it is your first time reading.
— Our initial dataset from the week of 7.3 was detailed here.
— Data from the week of 7.11 was detailed here
— Data from the week of 7.19 was detailed here.
— Aggregate data to date through 8.14 was detailed here
— Language data from the weeks of 8.07 & 8.14 was detailed here
— Aggregate data through 8.25 was detailed here.
— Language data from 8.21–8.28 was detailed here
— Language data from 8.28–9.04 was detailed here
— Aggregate data through 9.5 was detailed here
— Language data from 9.04–9.11 was detailed here
— Aggregate daily support gained/lost data through 9.17 was detailed here
— A first look at Supreme Court Data was detailed here
Battleground States in our Analysis: AZ, CO, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, NV, NH, NC, PA, TX, WI
Date Source: All data is publicly available and anonymized for our analysis from Twitter, Facebook, Online Blogs, & Message Boards.
Technology Partners: Eyesover & Relative Insight
Updated Supreme Court Data
Our technology partners at Eyesover did an interesting post on their look at SCOTUS impact at a national level.
We did a deeper dive on a state-by-state level inline with our ongoing battleground analysis.
Eyesover finds:
The President’s decision has provided a net gain in support with three times more people moving from a neutral or negative sentiment to a positive sentiment than those who were neutral or positive previously, but view this decision as a negative.
The issue has also provided Biden a net gain, but with a ratio of just under two to one, the decision to move forward on the nomination process prior to the election appears to be a winner for the President.
Daily Support Gained Lost
We took our ongoing daily support gained/lost tracking and filtered on the SCOTUS impact since September 19th.
At a high level, we see higher numbers for Trump in almost every state for support gained. But more importantly, combined with that number, is the overall shift we see in Previous Non-Supporters and their movement to neutral.
— Trump nets a postive total of 316 to Biden’s 172 in neutral shift. When you combine new support + Previous Non Supporter movement to Neutral you find Trump at +1138 and Biden +666.
State by State Supreme Court Support Impact
**This impact data is filtered around ONLY the Supreme Court Issue for each candidate.**
Key:
— Light Green: Previous Non-Supporter to Neutral: (a post indicating a previous non-supporter has moved to a more neutral stance on a candidate)
— Dark Green: Suport Gained: (a post indicating support gained for Trump or Biden)
— Dark Red: Support Lost: (a post indicating support lost for Trump or Biden)
— Light Red: Previous Supporter to Neutral: (a post indicating a previous supporter has moved to a more neutral stance on a candidate)
— Net Daily Gain/Lost: (the daily net of Support Gained v. Support Lost)
— Net Daily Neutral Shift: (the daily net of “Shifts to Neutral”)
Arizona Trump:
— High Support Impact Point +0.38%, Low Support Impact Point +0.21%
Arizona Biden:
High Support Impact Point +0.17%, Low Support Impact Point 0%
Colorado Trump:
High Support Impact Point +0.56%, Low Support Impact Point +0.21%
Colorado Biden:
High Support Impact Point +0.11%, Low Support Impact Point -0.11%
Florida Trump:
High Support Impact Point +0.33%, Low Support Impact Point +0.04%
Florida Biden:
High Support Impact Point +0.06%, Low Support Impact Point -0.02%
IA Trump:
High Support Impact Point +0.54%, Low Support Impact Point +0.13%
IA Biden:
High Support Impact Point +0.13%, Low Support Impact Point -0.13%
ME Trump:
High Support Impact Point +1.54%, Low Support Impact Point 0%
ME Biden:
High Support Impact Point +0.18%, Low Support Impact Point -0.18%
MI Trump:
High Support Impact Point +0.63%, Low Support Impact Point -0.04%
MI Biden:
High Support Impact Point +0.08%, Low Support Impact Point 0%
MN Trump:
High Support Impact Point +0.54%, Low Support Impact Point +0.16%
MN Biden:
High Support Impact Point +0.29%, Low Support Impact Point -0.15%
NC Trump:
High Support Impact Point +0.38%, Low Support Impact Point 0%
NC Biden:
High Support Impact Point +0.19%, Low Support Impact Point 0%
NH Trump:
High Support Impact Point +0.78%, Low Support Impact Point 0%
NH Biden:
High Support Impact Point +0.35%, Low Support Impact Point -0.53%
NV Trump:
High Support Impact Point +0.9%, Low Support Impact Point +0.06%
NV Biden:
High Support Impact Point +0.6%, Low Support Impact Point -0.07%
PA Trump:
High Support Impact Point +0.51%, Low Support Impact Point +0.15%
PA Biden:
High Support Impact Point +0.02%, Low Support Impact Point -0.15%
TX Trump:
High Support Impact Point +0.34%, Low Support Impact Point +0.03%
TX Biden:
High Support Impact Point +0.09%, Low Support Impact Point 0%
WI Trump:
High Support Impact Point +0.7%, Low Support Impact Point +0.26%
WI Biden:
High Support Impact Point +0.22%, Low Support Impact Point +0.17%
State by State Supreme Court Sentiment
Sentiment trendlines for each candidate by battleground state around the Supreme Court conversation.
Recent WSJ Coverage
Our work on this ongoing analysis was recently featured in The Wall Street Journal:
Election 2020 Polls: Startups Pitch Themselves as Alternatives
Many campaigns, political groups still pay for polling, but use online surveys and social-media analysis to understand voters
Support Gain/Lost Overview
The “Support Gain/Lost” metric is built by analyzing the language used in social posts about the presidential candidates. As battleground voters use language to indicate support for a candidate, our systems register “+1” in “Support Gained” for that date. A post expressing negative support is registered as “-1” in “Support Lost.”
These numbers are based on holistic expressions of support gained/lost, or shifts to neutral, from a unique social account. Only shifts in categorization are registered per social account after an initial signal is measured. (EX: a post from someone supporting Trump is not counted two days in a row.)
There are 6 metrics we monitor on a daily basis across each state:
— Previous Non-Supporter to Neutral: (a post indicating a previous non-supporter has moved to a more neutral stance on a candidate)
— Suport Gained: (a post indicating support gained for Trump or Biden)
— Support Lost: (a post indicating support lost for Trump or Biden)
— Previous Supporter to Neutral: (a post indicating a previous supporter has moved to a more neutral stance on a candidate)
— Net Daily Gain/Lost: (the daily net of Support Gained v. Support Lost)
— Net Daily Neutral Shift: (the daily net of “Shifts to Neutral”)
Language Analysis
Building off the “Support Gained v. Lost” classification, we are aggregating an anonymized dataset of social posts that represent support for each candidate. This dataset allows us to compare and analyze the language used by “Biden Supporters” v. “Trump Supporters.”
From this analysis, we can better understand the issues/topics/trends that cause voters to express support or opposition toward a candidate. It also exposes overall patterns from the language used between the two supporter datasets.
— The analysis is made possible by our partners at Relative Insight.
The chart below shows the current size of the language data set we are analyzing.
About The Author
Adam Meldrum is an award-winning political & digital strategist. He is the Founder/President of the Republican media-buying operation AdVictory LLC. Adam has consulted with other organizations in the political/technology space such as DDC Public Affairs and WinRed. Adam also serves on The Board of Directors at HeadCount, a non-partisan organization that uses the power of music to register voters and promote participation in democracy.
Since 2006 Adam has produced award-winning work for and advised campaigns/organizations such as; Governor Rick Snyder, Governor Bruce Rauner, Governor Doug Burgum, Governor Bill Lee, Ambassador Ron Weiser, Senator Ben Sasse, Senator John McCain, Senator Rand Paul, The Republican National Committee and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Adam’s work on the forefront of technology, data, and analytics was featured by OZY Media in a profile: “Meet the GOP’s Chatbot and Artificial Intelligence Guru”. He is a die-hard Michigan State University fan/alumni and pretty obsessed with Phish and The Grateful Dead. He resides in Washington D.C. with his beautiful wife Christina and their weird puppy, Basil.
Personal Website: http://www.adammeldrum.me/
