10.5 Presidential Social Intelligence Battleground Tracker — COVID Diagnosis Trump Sentiment & Issue Flow
A pulse of how potential voters in battleground states are discussing the Presidential candidates
Please read the background post on this project if it is your first time reading.
Past posts:
— Our initial dataset from the week of 7.3 was detailed here.
— Data from the week of 7.11 was detailed here
— Data from the week of 7.19 was detailed here.
— Aggregate data to date through 8.14 was detailed here
— Language data from the weeks of 8.07 & 8.14 was detailed here
— Aggregate data through 8.25 was detailed here.
— Language data from 8.21–8.28 was detailed here
— Language data from 8.28–9.04 was detailed here
— Aggregate data through 9.5 was detailed here
— Language data from 9.04–9.11 was detailed here
— Aggregate daily support gained/lost data through 9.17 was detailed here
— A first look at Supreme Court Data was detailed here
— A deeper dive into Supreme Court Data was detailed here
— A language comparison between voters in NC and FL was detailed here
— An overview of the pre-debate top issues was detailed here
— Aggregate daily support gained/lost data through 9.30 was detailed here
— Post debate issues and sentiment were detailed here
Battleground States in our Analysis: AZ, CO, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, NV, NH, NC, PA, TX, WI
Date Source: All data is publicly available and anonymized for our analysis from Twitter, Facebook, Online Blogs, & Message Boards.
Technology Partners: Eyesover & Relative Insight
Key Points
— A surge of positive sentiment has emerged around Trump’s COVID diagnosis. Specifically, large numbers of previous non- Trump supporters have expressed well-wishes to President Trump across battleground states.
— The last few weeks have produced a flood of high-profile news cycle moments.
Below we chart the discussion volume and sentiment around President Trump in each battleground state related to 1.) The Supreme Court Opening > 2.) Trump Taxation Issues (from The NYT story) > 3.) Alt-Right/Racial Issues following Trump’s “Proud Boy” comments after the first debate > 4.) Trump’s COVID diagnosis.
As each issue emerged it pushed the previous issue out of discussion in sequence almost entirely.
State By State Trump COVID Diagnosis Impact
*This impact data is filtered around ONLY the COVID Issues for each Trump.**
Key:
— Light Green: Previous Non-Supporter to Neutral: (a post indicating a previous non-supporter has moved to a more neutral stance on a candidate)
— Dark Green: Suport Gained: (a post indicating support gained for Trump or Biden)
— Dark Red: Support Lost: (a post indicating support lost for Trump or Biden)
— Light Red: Previous Supporter to Neutral: (a post indicating a previous supporter has moved to a more neutral stance on a candidate)
— Net Daily Gain/Lost: (the daily net of Support Gained v. Support Lost)
— Net Daily Neutral Shift: (the daily net of “Shifts to Neutral”)
Arizona:
Colorado:
Florida:
Iowa:
Maine:
Michigan:
Minnesota:
North Carolina:
New Hampshire:
Nevada:
Pennsylvania:
Texas:
Wisconsin:
Rapid Issue Flow
The last few weeks have produced a flood of high-profile news cycle moments.
— Below we chart the discussion volume and sentiment around President Trump in each battleground state related to 1.) The Supreme Court Opening > 2.) Trump Taxation Issues (from The NYT story) > 3.) Alt-Right/Racial Issues following Trump’s “Proud Boy” comments after the first debate > 4.) Trump’s COVID diagnosis.
— As each issue emerged it pushed the previous issue out of discussion in sequence almost entirely.
AZ All Issues:
CO All Issues:
FL All Issues:
IA All Issues:
ME All Issues:
MI All Issues:
MN All Issues:
NC All Issues:
NH All Issues:
NV All Issues:
PA All Issues:
TX All Issues:
WI All Issues:
About The Author
Adam Meldrum is an award-winning political & digital strategist. He is the Founder/President of the Republican media-buying operation AdVictory LLC. Adam has consulted with other organizations in the political/technology space such as DDC Public Affairs and WinRed. Adam also serves on The Board of Directors at HeadCount, a non-partisan organization that uses the power of music to register voters and promote participation in democracy.
Since 2006 Adam has produced award-winning work for and advised campaigns/organizations such as; Governor Rick Snyder, Governor Bruce Rauner, Governor Doug Burgum, Governor Bill Lee, Ambassador Ron Weiser, Senator Ben Sasse, Senator John McCain, Senator Rand Paul, The Republican National Committee and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Adam’s work on the forefront of technology, data, and analytics was featured by OZY Media in a profile: “Meet the GOP’s Chatbot and Artificial Intelligence Guru”. He is a die-hard Michigan State University fan/alumni and pretty obsessed with Phish and The Grateful Dead. He resides in Washington D.C. with his beautiful wife Christina and their weird puppy, Basil.
Personal Website: http://www.adammeldrum.me/
