10.7 Presidential Social Intelligence Battleground Tracker — Language Analysis
A pulse of how potential voters in battleground states are discussing the Presidential candidates
Please read the background post on this project if it is your first time reading.
Past posts:
— Our initial dataset from the week of 7.3 was detailed here.
— Data from the week of 7.11 was detailed here
— Data from the week of 7.19 was detailed here.
— Aggregate data to date through 8.14 was detailed here
— Language data from the weeks of 8.07 & 8.14 was detailed here
— Aggregate data through 8.25 was detailed here.
— Language data from 8.21–8.28 was detailed here
— Language data from 8.28–9.04 was detailed here
— Aggregate data through 9.5 was detailed here
— Language data from 9.04–9.11 was detailed here
— Aggregate daily support gained/lost data through 9.17 was detailed here
— A first look at Supreme Court Data was detailed here
— A deeper dive into Supreme Court Data was detailed here
— A language comparison between voters in NC and FL was detailed here
— An overview of the pre-debate top issues was detailed here
— Aggregate daily support gained/lost data through 9.30 was detailed here
— Post debate issues and sentiment were detailed here
— Trump’s COVID diagnosis and recent campaign issues flow was detailed here
Battleground States in our Analysis: AZ, CO, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, NV, NH, NC, PA, TX, WI
Date Source: All data is publicly available and anonymized for our analysis from Twitter, Facebook, Online Blogs, & Message Boards.
Technology Partners: Eyesover & Relative Insight
Support Gain/Lost Overview
The “Support Gain/Lost” metric is built by analyzing the language used in social posts about the presidential candidates. As battleground voters use language to indicate support for a candidate, our systems register “+1” in “Support Gained” for that date. A post expressing negative support is registered as “-1” in “Support Lost.”
These numbers are based on holistic expressions of support gained/lost, or shifts to neutral, from a unique social account. Only shifts in categorization are registered per social account after an initial signal is measured. (EX: a post from someone supporting Trump is not counted two days in a row.)
There are 6 metrics we monitor on a daily basis across each state:
— Previous Non-Supporter to Neutral: (a post indicating a previous non-supporter has moved to a more neutral stance on a candidate)
— Suport Gained: (a post indicating support gained for Trump or Biden)
— Support Lost: (a post indicating support lost for Trump or Biden)
— Previous Supporter to Neutral: (a post indicating a previous supporter has moved to a more neutral stance on a candidate)
— Net Daily Gain/Lost: (the daily net of Support Gained v. Support Lost)
— Net Daily Neutral Shift: (the daily net of “Shifts to Neutral”)
Aggregate counts from July 5th through September 30th:
— Trump Total Support Gained: 165,319
— Trump Total Support Lost: -120,548
— Trump Support Net: 44,771
— Biden Total Support Gained: 106,728
— Biden Total Support Lost: -95,294
— Biden Support Net: 11,434
Language Analysis
Building off the “Support Gained v. Lost” classification, we are aggregating an anonymized dataset of social posts that represent support for each candidate. This dataset allows us to compare and analyze the language used by “Biden Supporters” v. “Trump Supporters.”
From this analysis, we can better understand the issues/topics/trends that cause voters to express support or opposition toward a candidate. It also exposes overall patterns from the language used between the two supporter datasets.
— The analysis is processed via the Relative Insight language comparison platform.
The chart below shows the current size of the language data set:
— 1,020,237 Trump Supporter Posts
— 22,871,580 Trump Supporter Words
— 1,206,493 Biden Supporter Posts
— 27,550,710 Biden Supporter Words
9.25–10.2 Trump & Biden Supporter Language Analysis
From 9.25–10.2, Battleground Biden & Trump Supporters displayed the following language trends:
— Biden Supporters were 3.2x’s more likely to talk about Biden winning the debate
— Trump Supporters were 3.0x’s more likely to talk about Trump winning the debate
— Biden supporters were more focused on issues around Trump’s taxes and the NYT story
— Biden supporters discussed former Trump Campaign Manager Brad Parscale much more than Trump Supporters.
— Biden supporters continue to discuss COVID death counts in their online discussion at an almost infinite relative difference as compared to Trump supporters.
— Biden supporters heavily discussed Trump’s “Proud Boy” comments following the debate
— Trump supporters discussed Hope Hicks’ COVID diagnosis
— Trump supporters echoed Trump’s calls to denounce ANTIFA in addition to white supremacist groups during the debate
— Trump supporters discussed Hunter Biden and alleged Biden family crimes related to oversees foreign policy dealings
— Trump supporters focused Biden’s comments calling US troops “stupid bastards” in a past speech.
Emoji Fun
Used by Trump Supporters:
x6.9 - 😈
x18.8 - 👎🏼
Used By Biden Supporters:
x13.9 - ✋
x3.0 - 👏
Full Dataset Analysis:
Recent WSJ Coverage
Our work on this ongoing analysis was recently featured in The Wall Street Journal:
Election 2020 Polls: Startups Pitch Themselves as Alternatives
Many campaigns, political groups still pay for polling, but use online surveys and social-media analysis to understand voters
About The Author
Adam Meldrum is an award-winning political & digital strategist. He is the Founder/President of the Republican media-buying operation AdVictory LLC. Adam has consulted with other organizations in the political/technology space such as DDC Public Affairs and WinRed. Adam also serves on The Board of Directors at HeadCount, a non-partisan organization that uses the power of music to register voters and promote participation in democracy.
Since 2006 Adam has produced award-winning work for and advised campaigns/organizations such as; Governor Rick Snyder, Governor Bruce Rauner, Governor Doug Burgum, Governor Bill Lee, Ambassador Ron Weiser, Senator Ben Sasse, Senator John McCain, Senator Rand Paul, The Republican National Committee and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Adam’s work on the forefront of technology, data, and analytics was featured by OZY Media in a profile: “Meet the GOP’s Chatbot and Artificial Intelligence Guru”. He is a die-hard Michigan State University fan/alumni and pretty obsessed with Phish and The Grateful Dead. He resides in Washington D.C. with his beautiful wife Christina and their weird puppy, Basil.
Personal Website: http://www.adammeldrum.me/
