Lots of rain is expected this week. Here’s the precipitation forecast from 8 a.m. (EDT) on July 10 through 8 a.m. on July 15. Source: Northeast River Forecast Center and the Weather Prediction Center at the National Weather Service

“Flash Flooding Threat for New England”

5 min readJul 10, 2023

That sums up today’s extreme rainfall forecast from the National Weather Service.

“Dangerous, widespread flash flooding from excessive rainfall is expected across New England through Tuesday morning; Highest risk for Vermont with expected impacts to transit route,” the weather service says.

A “life threatening” flash flood emergency is in effect in central Vermont. Source: National Weather Service Burlington VT office

Story with nearly 40 of my recent photos in New Hampshire: Soggy, Cool Summer in New England

Here are some expectations, warnings and storm statistics, along with a climate change-related projection for extreme precipitation this century in the Northeast from NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory:

— “Numerous flash flooding events are likely today, some of which may become significant and pose a severe threat to life and property,” the National Weather Service office that covers New Hampshire and western Maine said on Facebook. “The greatest risk is across interior NH and western ME. Please stay alert for possible warnings and never drive through flood waters!”

— “Widespread, heavy rainfall capable of producing considerable to catastrophic flooding is beginning to unfold. Road washouts are
ongoing, and are expected to increase in extent and severity over the course of the day,” according to the weather service office in Burlington, Vermont. “Rounds of heavy rain will continue (to) impact the region through tonight, producing widespread 2–5 inches of rain, with localized amounts of 7+ inches. With saturated soil and elevated river levels from recent rainfall, widespread significant to potentially catastrophic flash flooding is expected today and tonight. Widespread area and river flooding will persist into Tuesday.”

“A slow-moving frontal system located over the Mid-Atlantic is the focus for ongoing heavy rainfall as synoptic forcing and a very moist airmass combine to create an environment ripe for flash flooding,” a Weather Prediction Center forecast discussion says.

— “HIGH risks are a BIG deal! But almost the entire Northeast region has a risk of flooding or flash flooding from today’s rainfall. Stay alert!” the Northeast River Forecast Center tweeted.

— Rainfall totals from 8 a.m. (EDT) yesterday through 10 a.m. this morning include as much as the following: 8.61 inches in New York state, 6.8 inches in Connecticut, 6.69 inches in Pennsylvania, 5.67 inches in Vermont, 5.64 inches in Massachusetts, 5.54 inches in New Jersey and 4.45 inches in New Hampshire, according to preliminary data in a Weather Prediction Center storm summary. Updated totals will be posted at 11 p.m. tonight.

— “Extreme precipitation is among the most destructive natural disasters,” and precipitation extremes have increased rapidly in the Northeast U.S. since the mid-1990s. By the mid-21st century, “unprecedented rainfall events could occur” in the Northeast. That’s based on projections from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s new high-resolution climate model, according to Climate.gov. Very extreme events may be six times more likely by 2100 than in the early 21st century, assuming a high-end projection of future greenhouse gas emissions.

More images:

Source: National Weather Service Burlington VT office