March 4th QAnon Conspiracy Theories
Over 9% of Battleground Trump Supporters discuss March 4th QAnon Conspiracy Theory
Project Background
Please read the background post on this project if it is your first time reading information on this project.
Battleground States in our Analysis: AZ, CO, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, NV, NH, NC, PA, TX, WI
March 4th
At the beginning of February we noted f the 447,442 Battleground Trump Supporter/Neutrals in our dataset, 33% discussed QAnon conspiracy related items before November 3rd. After November 3rd through January 31st, this number jumped to 60.52%.
Full post here:
More recent analysis has shown that over 9% of this dataset is now discussing new Qanon conspiracy theories surrounding the date of March 4th.
QAnon content is classified by tagging words, language, hashtags and links associated with QAnon conspiracy theories.
Match 4th Text Networks (Last 7 Days)
Viz Source: https://infranodus.com/
Full Viz and Main Topical Groupings:
Influential Elements:
Essential Statements:
Latent Topical Brokers:
These are the latent brokers between the topics: the nodes that have an unusually high rate of influence (betweenness centrality) to their frequency — meaning they may appear not as often as the most influential nodes but they are important narrative shifting points. These are usually brokers between different clusters / communities of nodes, playing not easily noticed and yet important role in this network.
Support Gain/Lost Overview
The “Support Gain/Lost” metric is built by analyzing the language used in social posts about the presidential candidates. As battleground voters use language to indicate support for a candidate, our systems register “+1” in “Support Gained” for that date. A post expressing negative support is registered as “-1” in “Support Lost.”
These numbers are based on holistic expressions of support gained/lost, or shifts to neutral, from a unique social account. Only shifts in categorization are registered per social account after an initial signal is measured. (EX: a post from someone supporting Trump is not counted two days in a row.)
There are 6 metrics we monitor on a daily basis across each state:
— Previous Non-Supporter to Neutral: (a post indicating a previous non-supporter has moved to a more neutral stance on a candidate)
— Suport Gained: (a post indicating support gained for Trump or Biden)
— Support Lost: (a post indicating support lost for Trump or Biden)
— Previous Supporter to Neutral: (a post indicating a previous supporter has moved to a more neutral stance on a candidate)
— Net Daily Gain/Lost: (the daily net of Support Gained v. Support Lost)
— Net Daily Neutral Shift: (the daily net of “Shifts to Neutral”)
Final numbers from July 5 through November 3rd:
— Trump Total Support Gained: 245,140
— Trump Total Support Lost: -174,082
— Trump Support Net: 71,058
— Biden Total Support Gained: 162,136
— Biden Total Support Lost: -143,087
— Biden Support Net: 19,072
Final State Trendlines:
Trump & Biden Categorized Supporter Language Dataset
WSJ Coverage
Our work on this ongoing analysis was recently featured in The Wall Street Journal:
Election 2020 Polls: Startups Pitch Themselves as Alternatives
Many campaigns, political groups still pay for polling, but use online surveys and social-media analysis to understand voters
Coverage in The New Yorker
Can We Trust the Polls?
Polls are not predictive; they are snapshots taken at a particular moment in time — one that will have passed by the time a poll reaches the public.
Past posts:
— Our initial dataset from the week of 7.3 was detailed here.
— Data from the week of 7.11 was detailed here
— Data from the week of 7.19 was detailed here.
— Aggregate data to date through 8.14 was detailed here
— Language data from the weeks of 8.07 & 8.14 was detailed here
— Aggregate data through 8.25 was detailed here.
— Language data from 8.21–8.28 was detailed here
— Language data from 8.28–9.04 was detailed here
— Aggregate data through 9.5 was detailed here
— Language data from 9.04–9.11 was detailed here
— Aggregate daily support gained/lost data through 9.17 was detailed here
— A first look at Supreme Court Data was detailed here
— A deeper dive into Supreme Court Data was detailed here
— A language comparison between voters in NC and FL was detailed here
— An overview of the pre-debate top issues was detailed here
— Aggregate daily support gained/lost data through 9.30 was detailed here
— Post debate issues and sentiment were detailed here
— Trump’s COVID diagnosis and recent campaign issues flow was detailed here
— A language analysis of data from 9.25–10.2 was detailed here
— An analysis through 10.5 of Trump COVID diagnosis and language flow was detailed here
— A language analysis through 10.7 was detailed here
— Aggregate supported gained/lost data through 10.11 was detailed here
— An analysis of data 7 days out through 10.28 was detailed here
— Support Index gap data through 11.2 was detailed here
— Final supported gained/lost data was detailed here
— Post election QAnon Content was detailed here
About The Author
Adam Meldrum is an award-winning political & digital strategist. He is the Founder/President of the Republican media-buying operation AdVictory LLC. Adam has advised other organizations in the political/technology space such as DDC Public Affairs and WinRed. Adam also serves on The Board of Directors at HeadCount, a non-partisan organization that uses the power of music to register voters and promote participation in democracy.
Since 2006 Adam has produced award-winning work for and advised campaigns/organizations such as; Governor Rick Snyder, Governor Bruce Rauner, Governor Doug Burgum, Governor Bill Lee, Ambassador Ron Weiser, Senator Ben Sasse, Senator John McCain, Senator Rand Paul, The Republican National Committee and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Adam’s work on the forefront of technology, data, and analytics was featured by OZY Media in a profile: “Meet the GOP’s Chatbot and Artificial Intelligence Guru”. He is a die-hard Michigan State University fan/alumni and pretty obsessed with Phish and The Grateful Dead. He resides in Washington D.C. with his beautiful wife Christina and their weird puppy, Basil.
Personal Website: http://www.adammeldrum.me/
