Solid flow over Welton Falls plus in Clark Brook in Welton Falls State Forest (my third hike there) in New Hampshire on Aug. 6, 2023. Photo by Todd B. Bates/NH EnviroGuy blogger

Super Wet Summer in New England and the Northeast

7 min readAug 11, 2023

Soggy June. Soggy July. Now a soggy August in New England and the Northeast.

Plus dozens of flash flood warnings and quite a few tornadoes.

Another round of heavy rain arrived this week, including up to 6.57 inches in Maine, according to National Weather Service reports.

Next week, a strong cold front sweeping through the Midwest/Great Lakes into the Northeast “should support areas of strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall along and ahead of the boundary,” a Weather Prediction Center forecast discussion says. “Plenty of uncertainty in the details still, especially with regards to timing, so these areas (are) likely to be modified with time.”

“This system should race quickly through the Northeast on Tuesday, but given anomalous moisture and sensitivity in some regions of the Northeast, heavy rainfall and/or flash flooding cannot be ruled out,” the discussion adds.

Meanwhile, an above-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is now most likely (a 60 percent chance), as per an updated outlook by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. That’s up from a 30 percent chance in its May outlook. Record warm sea surface temperatures “could compete and mitigate the potential impacts of the ongoing El Niño,” the updated outlook says.

A tropical cyclone that causes extreme flooding could be catastrophic considering everything New England and the Northeast have endured this summer.

Sixty-eight years ago, much of the East Coast got slammed by back-to-back hurricanes.

Source: National Weather Service Boston/Norton office

Flash Flooding, Record Rainfall in New England and the Northeast

Here are some recent weather and climate highlights (or lowlights, depending on your perspective and tolerance for soggy weather):

— This summer is the wettest on record for the Mount Washington Observatory at the 6,288-foot summit of the New Hampshire mountain. Summer precipitation totaled 37.85 inches as of mid-afternoon on Aug. 9. The previous record of 37.80 inches was set in 1998, according to the observatory. Observers there posted “A Look at Record Precipitation in July and the Upcoming Seasonal Outlook” and “Excessive Rainfall over Vermont.”

— “Damage from the Great Vermont Flood of July 2023 rivaled — and in some areas exceeded — Tropical Storm Irene in 2011,” says a preliminary summary posted by the National Weather Service office in Burlington. “Only the Great Flood” in Nov. 3–4, 1927, “an event that preceded modern flood control in the state, exceeded the impact of the 2011 and 2023 events in the past century,” the summary says.

— Maine had “record high dew points for July,” the National Weather Service office in Caribou tweeted. “If you thought it felt unusually muggy, you thought right.”

— Severe weather reports in the U.S. exceeded 6,500 in July, the most preliminary reports for that month on record, according to NOAA Climate.gov via the Storm Prediction Center at the National Weather Service.

Story: “Flash Flooding Threat for New England”

— Overnight temperatures in July were the warmest on record across New England, and Maine had its warmest July on record, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.

— Vermont and Connecticut had their second-wettest July on record. New Hampshire had its fifth wettest January through July period on record, according to the centers.

Story: Soggy, Cool Summer in New England

— Massachusetts and Connecticut had their second-warmest January through July period on record.

— The U.S. had 15 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters this year through July, the most for that period since 1980. They led to 113 deaths (directly or indirectly) and cost more than $39.7 billion. The disasters included 13 severe storm events, the winter storm/cold wave from Feb. 2 to 5 in the Northeast and a flooding event. Costs linked to the 363 billion-dollar disasters since 1980 have topped $2.59 trillion (Consumer Price Index adjusted to 2023).

More images, including some of my recent photos in New Hampshire:

Precipitation forecast through 8 a.m. (EDT) on Aug. 18, 2023. Source: Weather Prediction Center at the National Weather Service

“Most of these locations are near or above a normal June through August rainfall total, and the locations near 24" are among the very wettest observed in the lower 48, surpassed only by isolated locations in New Jersey and Massachusetts.” Source: National Weather Service Burlington VT office

Well above normal precipitation in much of New England over 90 days ending on Aug. 10, 2023. Source: Northeast River Forecast Center

The National Weather Service office in Burlington, Vermont, which covers most of the Green Mountain State and part of northern New York, issued 59 flash flood warnings from July 1 to Aug. 5. That’s the most of any weather service office in the U.S. The office that covers New Hampshire and western Maine ranked third, with 52 flash flood warnings. Source: National Weather Service office Burlington VT office

Flash flood warnings issued by each National Weather Service forecast office this year through about 8 p.m. (EDT) on Aug. 9. The office that covers New Hampshire and western Maine issued 77 warnings, ranking fifth nationwide. Source: National Weather Service Gray/Portland ME office

These images show a satellite image from last month’s flooding on the Winooski River in Vermont and a model of the extent of inundation. Source: Office of Water Prediction

Streamflow in the 50 states and Puerto Rico and nationally in July 2023, compared with the historic record. “Wetter than normal conditions persisted for much of New England, while parts of the Pacific Northwest saw dry conditions.” Source: USGS Data Science

Much above normal or high streamflow in much of New England on Aug. 11, 2023. Source: USGS WaterWatch

Source: National Centers for Environmental Information

“The wetter July was due to persistent cyclonic flow/troughiness across the eastern Great Lakes & New England, which led to lower than normal sea level pressures (ie more unsettled/active weather) for our area.” Source: National Weather Service Boston/Norton office

Historical probability of severe weather based on storms from 1982 to 2011. Source. NOAA Climate.gov via the Storm Prediction Center