Lees Pond in Moultonborough, New Hampshire, on Oct. 31, 2023. Photo by Todd B. Bates/NH EnviroGuy blogger

Warm October in New England, November and Winter Outlooks, Snowfall Trends, Nor’easters

7 min readNov 2, 2023

Warmer than normal in New England. Sound familiar?

After an abnormally warm September in New England, October was much the same, according to the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

And that’s no surprise, considering the average high in Concord, New Hampshire, for example, rose by 2.7 degrees from 1970 to 2022, according to Climate Central. The average October temperature in the Granite State’s capital city has also increased: by 4.9 degrees from 1970 to 2023.

But November may be cooler than normal in nearly all of New England, a NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlook indicates. And there are “equal chances” that precipitation will be above, near or below normal.

While some snow has already fallen in parts of New England, an early November nor’easter dumped 20 inches at Mount Washington in New Hampshire 35 years ago. Winds gusted to 70 to 75 mph along the coast, and 5 inches of rain fell in 24 hours in Portland, Maine, according to the National Weather Service Gray/Portland, Maine, office.

Snowfall Totals for the 2022–23 Season in the Eastern U.S.

On this date in 1743, “a severe storm struck the American colonies from Virginia northward. The storm might have been a late-season hurricane or a nor’easter,” the Boston/Norton weather service office says.

11th Anniversary of Superstorm Sandy, 12 Years Since “Snowtober”

More October weather and climate highlights in New England, the Northeast and beyond:

— The mercury hit an all-time record high for October — 86 degrees — on the 4th at Burlington airport in Vermont. Daily record highs were recorded three days in a row, according to the weather service office there.

— It was the second warmest October on record in Caribou and Bangor in Maine. “Interestingly, 4 of Caribou’s 5 warmest Octobers have been since 2017,” the weather service office in Caribou posted. Record-keeping began in 1939 in Caribou and late 1925 in Bangor. Houlton in Maine tied its warmest October since 1948, while Millinocket had its second warmest since 1903, a monthly climate summary says.

— It was the third warmest October on record in Portland, Maine; the fifth warmest in Burlington, Vermont; the seventh warmest in Concord in New Hampshire, Boston and Worcester in Massachusetts, and Hartford in Connecticut; and the ninth warmest in Providence, Rhode Island, according to the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

— It was the third wettest October on record in Burlington and the 17th snowiest in Caribou, with 3.3 inches of snow, the center says.

— This year through October, tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin has been about 30 percent higher than the 1991 to 2020 average. That’s based on “Accumulated Cyclone Energy,” which measures the strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, the National Hurricane Center says. Though the hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30, tropical cyclones occasionally form before and after the season.

1821 Hurricane Slammed U.S. East Coast

Here are many more images, including some of my recent fall foliage-focused photos in New Hampshire. Topics include foliage in the White Mountain National Forest in New Hampshire, winter weather, snowfall during an El Niño (which is underway), short-term and seasonal climate outlooks, Hurricane Sandy in 2012, the 1991 “Perfect Storm” (aka the Halloween storm) and nor’easters.

New England Average Snowfall Map: Are You Ready for Winter?

At 11:47 a.m. today (Nov. 2), the temperature was 12.5 degrees at the 6,288-foot summit of Mount Washington and the wind chill was minus-8. Source: Mount Washington Observatory

The average high temperature in Concord, New Hampshire, increased by 2.7 degrees from 1970 to 2022. Source: Climate Central

The temperatures averaged 6 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in October in parts New York and northern New England. The month ranked among the 20 warmest on record at 28 of 35 major climate sites in the Northeast. Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center

October was among the 20 driest on record for six major of the 35 major climate sites in the Northeast and among the 20 wettest for two sites. Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center

Landsat satellite image of part of the White Mountain National Forest in New Hampshire on May 28, 2023. Source: USGS Landsat

Landsat satellite image of part of the White Mountain National Forest in New Hampshire on Oct. 4, 2023. Source: USGS Landsat

Source: National Weather Service Gray/Portland ME office via the National Centers for Environmental Information

Snowfall accumulation from Sept. 30, 2023, to Nov. 2, 2023. Source: National Weather Service, National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center, Office of Water Prediction

“Who is ready for some snow? For a majority of Canada and a large part of Alaska, November is the snowiest month of the year.” Source: Brian Brettschneider, PhD climatologist based on Alaska

Source: Jared Rennie, research meteorologist at the National Centers for Environmental Information

This winter (December through February), “warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the northern tier of the U.S. and much of the Far West. The greatest odds for warmer-than-average conditions are in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest and northern New England.” El Nino, when equatorial sea surface temperatures are above normal in the eastern Pacific Ocean, is in place heading into winter for the first time in four years. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center and NOAA

“Snowfall during all El Niño winters (January-March) compared to the 1991–2020 average (after the long-term trend has been removed). Blue colors show more snow than average; brown shows less snow than average.” Source: NOAA Climate.gov map, based on ERA5 data from 1959–2023 analyzed by Michelle L’Heureux

“Snowfall during moderate-to-strong El Niño winters (January-March) compared to the 1991–2020 average (after the long-term trend has been removed). Blue colors show more snow than average; brown shows less snow than average.” Source: NOAA Climate.gov map, based on ERA5 data from 1959–2023 analyzed by Michelle L’Heureux.

“Changes in snowfall (in inches per decade) between 1959 and 2023. Across most of the United States — Alaska being the major exception — snowfall has declined (brown colors).” Source: NOAA Climate.gov map, based on ERA5 data from 1959–2023 analyzed by Michelle L’Heureux.

Source: National Weather Service Gray/Portland ME office

Source: National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA office

A reanalysis of Hurricane Sandy (October 2012) “via the new CONUS404 dataset, in http://TropicalTidbits.com style.” Source: Evan Fisher, meteorologist at the NC State Center for Geospatial Analytics